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Prediction Markets

Mint YES and NO pairs against USDC, trade them on a pool, and settle by a verifier's vote. Seven approvals and two alias denoms are the whole market.

A binary market is two token IDs (YES and NO), a deposit approval that mints one of each per coin, a redeem approval that burns one of each for the coin back, and four settlement approvals gated on a verifier's vote. YES and NO get alias denoms, so they trade on the chain's own liquidity pools at whatever price the market sets. The escrow that pays winners is the collection's mint escrow address, funded by the deposits themselves.

No oracle contract, no AMM contract, no settlement contract. Every rule is an approval that anyone can read before they buy.

What Makes It Work

RequirementToken-standard primitive
1 USDC in, 1 YES + 1 NO out, at any sizepredeterminedBalances with startBalances over token IDs 1 to 2 and allowAmountScaling: true. See Predetermined Balances
Deposits fund the payout poolcoinTransfers with to: "Mint", which routes to the mint escrow address. See Coin Transfers
Exit before settlementA burn approval for one YES + one NO that pays 1 USDC from escrow
Price discoveryAlias paths uyes and uno, then a balancer pool on badgeslp:<collectionId>:uyes and badgeslp:<collectionId>:uno. See Alias Denoms
Outcome decided once, by a named partyvotingChallenges with the verifier as sole voter on each settlement approval. See Voting Challenges
Winners paid 1:1, push paid 1:2Settlement approvals burn 1 token per coin (win) or 2 tokens per coin (push)
Rules frozenAll permissions locked at creation

The Fields That Matter

The paired mint and the YES-wins settlement:

json
{
  "collectionApprovals": [
    {
      "approvalId": "pm-mint-a41c",
      "fromListId": "Mint",
      "toListId": "All",
      "initiatedByListId": "All",
      "tokenIds": [{ "start": "1", "end": "2" }],
      "approvalCriteria": {
        "predeterminedBalances": {
          "incrementedBalances": {
            "startBalances": [{ "amount": "1", "tokenIds": [{ "start": "1", "end": "2" }], "ownershipTimes": [{ "start": "1", "end": "18446744073709551615" }] }],
            "allowAmountScaling": true,
            "maxScalingMultiplier": "18446744073709551615"
          }
        },
        "coinTransfers": [{ "to": "Mint", "coins": [{ "amount": "1", "denom": "ibc/E1116484B327AEE59CDC3DA73D319834781A13DB2A7DFC1F38A30CD45ABF58B8" }] }],
        "requireToEqualsInitiatedBy": true,
        "overridesFromOutgoingApprovals": true
      }
    },
    {
      "approvalId": "pm-settle-yes-9b02",
      "fromListId": "!Mint",
      "toListId": "bb1qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqs7gvmv",
      "initiatedByListId": "All",
      "tokenIds": [{ "start": "1", "end": "1" }],
      "approvalCriteria": {
        "votingChallenges": [{ "proposalId": "pm-settle-yes-9b02", "quorumThreshold": "100", "voters": [{ "address": "bb1zc268nctj8xwslgw7q22cahs6k4y048agr6fvf", "weight": "1" }] }],
        "coinTransfers": [{ "to": "", "coins": [{ "amount": "1", "denom": "ibc/E1116484B327AEE59CDC3DA73D319834781A13DB2A7DFC1F38A30CD45ABF58B8" }], "overrideFromWithApproverAddress": true, "overrideToWithInitiator": true }],
        "maxNumTransfers": { "perInitiatedByAddressMaxNumTransfers": "1", "amountTrackerId": "pm-settle-yes-9b02" }
      }
    }
  ]
}
Token Ownership Requirements
Off
No ownership check
Coin Transfers per Use
On
  • 0.000001 USDCMint
Merkle Challenges
Off
No proof required
Predetermined Balances
On
Start: x1 of IDs 1-2, or any whole multiple of it
Amount Restrictions
Off
No amount limit
Max Transfers
Off
Unlimited uses
Address Checks
On
Recipient must be the initiator
Sender and Recipient Approvals
On
Skips the sender's outgoing approvals
Must satisfy the recipient's incoming approvals

The paired mint on bitbadges.io: one YES and one NO per unit of USDC sent to the mint escrow, scaled to the deposit.

Amounts here are ratios: the amount: "1" on the deposit and on the payout scale together with allowAmountScaling. The verifier casts one MsgCastVote on pm-settle-yes-9b02; after that, any YES holder burns their tokens through this approval and receives USDC.

bash
bb build prediction-market --verifier bb1zc268nctj8xwslgw7q22cahs6k4y048agr6fvf --denom USDC \
  --name "Will testnet return by 2027?" --description "Resolves YES if the BitBadges testnet is back online before 2027-01-01." \
  --image ipfs://bafybeigdyrzt5sfp7udm7hu76uh7y26nf3efuylqabf3oclgtqy55fbzdi/market.png

This emits a Prediction Market collection with the seven approvals (mint, transfer, redeem, YES wins, NO wins, push YES, push NO), alias paths for YES and NO, and pool creation enabled.

Variations

  • Multiple resolvers: several voters with weights and quorumThreshold: "51", or a delayAfterQuorum timelock for disputes.
  • Limit orders without a pool: bb build pm-sell-intent and bb build pm-buy-intent write user-level approvals that swap YES or NO for USDC at a fixed price.
  • Deadline on deposits: bound the mint approval's transferTimes so no new pairs mint after the event starts.
  • Categorical markets: N token IDs instead of two, one settlement approval per outcome.
  • Different collateral: --denom BADGE or any IBC coin; alias decimals follow the collateral.

Build It

text
Load the prediction-market skill. Build a USDC market on "Will BTC close above 150k on 2026-12-31?" resolved by bb1zc268nctj8xwslgw7q22cahs6k4y048agr6fvf. Include the pool creation message. Validate, review, simulate, then give me the review link.

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